Silhouettes of People Standing in Front of A Digital American Flag, Illustrating the Concept of The Us Population Decline with Zero Immigration

US. Census Bureau Warns of 30% Drop by 2100 with Zero Immigration

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Washington, D.C. – The U.S. Census Bureau has released its latest population projections, offering a glimpse into the nation’s future based on four distinct immigration scenarios: high, low, medium (“main”), and zero-immigration rates.

In its main scenario, deemed the most probable by the JEC, the U.S. population is expected to inch upward from its current 338 million to 369 million by 2080.

This gradual rise reflects an average annual growth rate of 0.0163%, fueled by an estimated 1 million immigrants entering the country each year.

Under the high-immigration case, which projects 1.5 million new immigrants annually, the population would climb steadily through the century, hitting 435 million by 2100.

This equates to an annual growth rate of about 0.033%, though experts note the pace slows over time, nearing zero as the century closes.

Conversely, the low-immigration scenario, with just 500,000 newcomers yearly, predicts a population peak in 2043 at slightly under 346 million—a 2.8% uptick from today. By 2100, however, the population would dip to 319 million, a 5% decline from current levels.

Zero Immigration: A Stark Decline Ahead

The zero-immigration projection paints the most dramatic picture.

With no new immigrants, the U.S. population, already at its peak, would plummet by more than 30% by 2100, shrinking to roughly 225 million—equivalent to 1980’s total according to CIS.

After 2040, the decline is forecasted to accelerate, shedding about 1 million residents each year. By the century’s end, annual losses could exceed 2 million, signaling a profound demographic shift.

U.S. Census Bureau Population Projections by Immigration Scenario (2022–2100)

Year High Immigration (millions) Middle (Main) Immigration (millions) Low Immigration (millions) Zero Immigration (millions)
2022 338 338 338 338
2043 ~370 (est.) ~360 (est.) 346 ~310 (est.)
2080 ~410 (est.) 369 ~340 (est.) ~270 (est.)
2100 435 ~370 (est.) 319 225

  • 2022: The starting population for all scenarios is 338 million, as stated in the description.
  • 2043: The Low Immigration scenario peaks at 346 million (from the description). Other values are estimated based on the graph’s trends: High Immigration shows steady growth, Middle (Main) shows slight growth, and Zero Immigration shows a decline.
  • 2080: The Middle (Main) scenario reaches 369 million (from the description). High Immigration is estimated based on its upward trend, Low Immigration shows a decline after its 2043 peak, and Zero Immigration continues its sharp decline.
  • 2100: High Immigration reaches 435 million, Low Immigration drops to 319 million, and Zero Immigration falls to 225 million (all from the description). The Middle (Main) scenario is estimated to hover around 370 million, as its growth is slow and plateaus after 2080 per the graph.

Challenges and Economic Impacts for the U.S.

A closer look at the U.S. Census Bureau’s zero-immigration projection reveals a surprising detail: net immigration remains negative across all years.

This challenges the popular narrative often amplified on social media, as many immigrants leave the U.S. annually—some voluntarily. For instance, young people on educational visas frequently return to their home countries after completing their studies.

Additionally, despite social media misconceptions, the U.S. has consistently deported significant numbers, with removals averaging around 100,000 immigrants per month over the past two years.

Immigration plays a central role in these projections because it is the most influential and unpredictable factor affecting population growth.

Population forecasts hinge on three variables: birth rates, death rates, and immigration. Birth and death rates are relatively stable, evolving gradually and making natural population change (births minus deaths) fairly predictable. Immigration, however, is heavily influenced by public sentiment and policy, which can shift dramatically.

This makes it the most difficult variable to forecast accurately.

The U.S. may face lower immigration rates in the near future, reflecting current public sentiment that strongly shaped the 2024 election as stated by Migration Policy. Historically, anti-immigrant sentiments have persisted for 10 to 15 years, but this cycle may differ.

Today’s demographic landscape, rapid information spread, and polarized political parties—each representing extreme views—create unprecedented conditions that could alter the duration of this trend.

Still, attitudes are likely to shift eventually. A declining or stagnant population, as projected in the zero-immigration scenario, could lead to economic challenges for many Americans.

Businesses may struggle to grow, and everyday services could suffer—imagine a favorite local restaurant closing due to labor shortages or difficulties finding workers for tasks like yard maintenance. Such hardships often soften public views on immigration over time.

The notion that native-born Americans will fill these labor gaps is, frankly, unrealistic. In a zero-immigration scenario, the U.S. population aged 14 to 24 would shrink to just 9 million by 2100, while the restaurant industry alone currently employs over 15 million people.

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