The population in the United States is still rising, but not at the pace people once expected. A new report from the Congressional Budget Office shows the total will move from 350 million in 2025 to about 367 million by 2055. That figure is lower than experts had projected at the start of the year.
According to the CBO, the slowdown comes from two major changes. Families are having fewer children, and immigration is declining under tighter rules and new laws. The agency now predicts that deaths will outnumber births in 2031, two years earlier than previously forecast. By the early 2050s, growth is expected to be so weak that it will approach zero.
Falling Birth Rates
Population growth depends heavily on how many children families decide to have. In recent years, that number has dropped across the United States.
Women are now expected to have fewer children than past generations, and that change reshapes the future. With fewer new babies, the country adds people at a much slower pace.
Families Having Fewer Children
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The average woman in the United States is now projected to have about 1.6 children. For a population to replace itself over time, the figure needs to be around 2.1.
Falling below that line means fewer young people will enter schools, jobs, and communities in the decades ahead.
Impact Across Regions
The decline is not spread evenly. States like West Virginia, Maine, and Vermont already see more funerals than births each year.
Larger states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan have also seen birth numbers slip.
By contrast, Texas and Florida still gain people, but much of their growth now depends on migration rather than large numbers of new babies.
Immigration Declines
Alongside fewer births, immigration has slowed. For decades, immigrants played a major role in keeping the U.S. population growing.
New policies and stricter enforcement have reduced those numbers, and the effect is clear in the latest government outlook.
Policy and Enforcement
Actions taken in 2025, including the most recent federal laws, are expected to cut net immigration in the near term.
Deportations are rising, and fewer new entries are being approved.
That shift reduces the number of immigrants projected to settle in the country over the next decade.
States Most Affected
Border states such as Texas, Arizona, and California feel the impact most directly. They have long been entry points for new arrivals.
With fewer people coming, growth in those states depends more on moves from other parts of the country.
Aging Population
Fewer births and fewer immigrants also mean the United States is getting older.
More people are living longer lives, and with fewer young people entering the population, the balance is shifting.
By the 2030s and 2040s, older adults will make up a much larger share of the country.
Rising Median Age
The median age in the United States is climbing past 39 and is expected to keep rising in the years ahead. In states like Maine and New Hampshire, the median age is already above 44.
An older population means fewer workers in their prime years and more people needing retirement benefits and medical care.
Pressure on Healthcare and Retirement Systems
More retirees will depend on Social Security and Medicare, while fewer younger workers will be paying taxes into those systems.
Hospitals and clinics in aging states such as Florida and Pennsylvania are already feeling more demand for doctors, nurses, and long-term care facilities.
States That Are Growing and States That Are Shrinking
Population change does not look the same everywhere. Some states keep adding residents, while others are losing ground. Jobs, cost of living, and the age of local communities all shape the direction of growth.
Growth in the South and West
The South and West are leading in population gains.
Why People Move South
- Warm climate and lower taxes
- Expanding job markets in health care, technology, and construction
- Housing that is more affordable than on the coasts
As we already said, Texas and Florida stand out, adding hundreds of thousands of people each year. North Carolina is also drawing newcomers to cities like Charlotte and Raleigh, where strong job markets and universities give families reasons to stay.
Expanding Western States
Arizona, Nevada, and Utah continue to grow. Phoenix and Las Vegas attract service workers and retirees, while Utah appeals to younger families with strong schools and a youthful workforce. Even with fewer immigrants than in the past, migration from other states keeps the numbers up.
Decline in the Midwest and Northeast
Many Midwest and Northeastern states are experiencing a population decline.
Shrinking Midwest Communities
Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois watch younger workers leave for opportunities elsewhere. In smaller towns, schools are closing and houses sit empty.
Some counties in Michigan have lost more than ten percent of their population over the past twenty years.
Aging Northeast States
Pennsylvania and Vermont face more deaths than births every year. Vermont has one of the oldest populations in the country, and many young people move away for school and do not return.
Pennsylvania cities such as Pittsburgh have fewer children in classrooms, but rising costs tied to senior care.
Big States Facing Change
California remains the most populous state, but growth is slowing. Housing costs in Los Angeles and San Francisco push many families to move out. Texas, Nevada, and Arizona are common destinations.
California still welcomes immigrants, but it loses more people to moves inside the country than it gains.
New York is also shrinking. Upstate towns are hit the hardest, though even New York City has fewer residents than before the pandemic.
Families and younger workers leave for southern states that offer cheaper housing and more job options.
Slower Growth Will Reshape the U.S. Economy
The outlook is plain. A slower-growing population changes how the economy works. Fewer young workers are stepping in, and more older adults are stepping out. That means the weight of the system shifts onto fewer shoulders.
Jobs and Workers
There will be fewer people to fill jobs. Health care, construction, and technology will be the hardest hit. Companies may pay more to get workers, but those higher costs often end up passed along to all of us in prices.
Retirement and Benefits
More retirees will depend on Social Security and Medicare. At the same time, fewer workers will be paying into those programs. That squeeze means harder choices for lawmakers and more uncertainty for families counting on those benefits.
Everyday Life
- Schools in smaller towns may close doors because there are not enough children to fill classrooms
- Growing southern and western cities could see housing prices climb faster as more families move in
- Hospitals and care centers in states with older populations will need more staff, more beds, and more money to keep up
Final Thoughts
The United States is still growing, but not the way it once did. Fewer children are being born, immigration has slowed, and the population is getting older. Some states are booming, others are emptying out. The changes ahead will shape schools, jobs, and communities for decades to come.
That is the picture painted by the latest report. A country still on the move, but in a new direction, and with new challenges we all will have to face together.