Why Some US States Are Losing Population Rapidly 2025

The United States population grew modestly between 2022 and 2023 (about +0.5% nationally), but this growth was uneven. While 42 states (and D.C.) gained residents, a handful saw alarming declines.

Eight U.S. states lost population in the last few years, with a few experiencing especially large drops, as noted by Forbes. These losses have slowed from the prior year’s pandemic peak, yet remain significant.

The map of domestic migration has been reshaped: Americans continue to move from expensive, high-tax regions in the Northeast and West to more affordable Sun Belt locales (especially the South).

As a result, states like New York, California, and Illinois are shedding tens of thousands of residents, even as states like Texas and Florida boom.

New York led with an estimated loss of ~102,000 people, the steepest numeric drop, followed by California (~75,000 lost) and Illinois (~33,000 lost). Louisiana, Pennsylvania, and a few others also saw declines. (Puerto Rico, not shown, lost ~14,000 people or 0.45%.)

Why are these places rapidly losing people?  New York, California, Illinois, Louisiana, and Pennsylvania – using the latest data to break down each state’s demographic changes.

New York: High Costs and Pandemic Aftershocks

New York experienced the nation’s largest population decline in 2023, shrinking by about 102,000 people (–0.52%).

This was New York’s fourth straight year of population loss, though the pace has slowed from the worst of the pandemic era.

Notably, New York City bore the brunt: NYC’s population alone dropped by ~77,000 in one year, accounting for most of the state’s loss.

Components of change

New York had more births than deaths statewide (+41,536) – a natural increase driven by New York City and suburban counties (upstate New York still had more deaths than births), as noted by Newsweek. The state also gained about +74,000 people from international migration as immigration rebounded in 2022–23.

However, these gains were overwhelmed by a massive net domestic outflow: roughly 216,000 more people left New York for other states than moved in. In other words, domestic migration was the primary driver of New York’s population decline.

New York’s net outmigration to the rest of the U.S. in that year was one of the largest ever recorded for any state, representing about 1.1% of its population.

Why are New Yorkers Leaving?

The reasons are largely economic and quality-of-life related. New York (especially NYC) has among the highest costs of living, including sky-high housing costs and taxes, which makes many residents seek cheaper pastures.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, remote work enabled thousands to relocate from New York to states like Florida and Texas, where living expenses are lower.

This trend has continued: data show ongoing interstate migration flows from New York to the Sun Belt. For example, Texas has been a major magnet; a 2021 analysis found Texas offers abundant jobs, good schools, low crime, and affordable homes, attracting many ex-New Yorkers (and Californians) looking to maintain their quality of life at lower cost.

Weather and environment might play a role too – retirees and remote workers often swap New York’s cold winters for warmer climates. Additionally, tax burden is frequently cited: New York has one of the highest state and local tax loads, which can incentivize high earners (and businesses) to relocate to tax-friendlier states.

Another factor is the lingering pandemic aftershocks in NYC. Urban amenities lost their appeal during lockdowns, and some residents never returned. Office vacancies remain high, and some neighborhoods feel less safe – whether due to crime perception or social conditions – prompting families to move to suburbs or other states.

All told, New York’s population decline reflects people “voting with their feet” in search of affordability and opportunity. The result: New York is losing people at the fastest rate in the country, a trend mirrored by other pricey Northeastern states.

California: Exodus from the Golden State

California saw the second-biggest population drop in 2023, losing about 75,000 residents (–0.19%) according to reports.

While small in percentage terms, this was California’s third consecutive year of decline – a striking reversal for a state that boomed for decades (Notably, new 2024 estimates suggest California’s population ticked up again after 2023, but here we focus on the recent decline.)

Components of Change

California’s population dynamics are a tale of two migrations. On one hand, California still had a sizeable natural increase – in 2022–23, here were roughly 111,000 more births than deaths in the state, one of the highest natural increases of any state.

It also gained about +151,000 people through international immigration in that period, as foreign migration to California surged post-pandemic. These two factors added roughly +262,000 people to California.

However, they were negated by an enormous net domestic out-migration: an estimated 338,000 more people moved out of California to other U.S. states than moved in.

This domestic loss – the largest of any state – completely outweighed California’s natural growth and immigration gains, resulting in a net –75k population decline. In short, California’s births and immigrants couldn’t keep up with the outflow of Californians moving elsewhere.

Why Are People Leaving California?

The root causes echo those in New York: the cost of living is number one. California’s housing costs are the highest in the nation (the median home price far exceeds the national median), and major cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles have become prohibitively expensive for many families.

The high cost of housing (owning or renting) has pushed both middle-class and low-income residents out.

Taxes and regulations are another oft-cited factor – California has one of the highest state income tax rates and a complex regulatory environment that some businesses and wealthier residents chafe at. In surveys of former Californians, seeking better job opportunities and affordable housing elsewhere comes up frequently.

States such as Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and Idaho have been popular destinations for Californians, offering cheaper homes and, in some cases, lower taxes or more space.

Quality of life concerns have played a role too. The state’s urban issues – from traffic congestion and long commutes to concerns about crime or homelessness in parts of San Francisco/LA – have made headlines and may contribute to some departures.

Additionally, California has grappled with environmental challenges like severe wildfires, droughts, and power shutoffs in recent years, prompting some residents to reconsider living there. While the climate is generally mild, the increasing frequency of natural disasters can be a deterrent.

Closing schools during COVID was one of the worst policy mistakes in history.
From the article: “The more time students spent in remote instruction, the further they fell behind. And, experts say, extended closures did little to stop the spread of Covid.”https://t.co/ihT8PJLIdk

— Glenn Jacobs (@GlennJacobsTN) March 19, 2024

During the pandemic, California’s strict COVID policies (business closures, school shutdowns) were a catalyst for some to move to less restrictive states. High-profile critics have painted California as a place of “unaffordable housing, excessive regulation and ‘wacky’ liberal policies,” claiming residents are fleeing to conservative states with perceived better governance.

Politics aside, the data does show hundreds of thousands of Californians on the move – and when combined with fewer newcomers from other states, California ended up with a net loss.

It’s worth noting that California’s out-migration is not entirely new – the state had been losing residents to domestic migration for many years, but until recently natural growth and international immigration still pushed its population upward.

The pandemic accelerated the outflow (California lost over 500,000 people from 2020 to 2022). By 2023, the outflow slowed (only ~91,000 net domestic loss in 2023, per state data),​ according to calmatters.org, and robust immigration helped the state nearly break even.

Going forward, California’s challenge will be retaining and attracting residents despite high costs – a problem that has already made it lose one seat in Congress after the 2020 Census (the first time in state history).

Illinois: A Demographic Decline Decade

Illinois had the third-largest population loss in 2023, losing about 32,800 people (–0.26%). Though smaller in absolute terms than NY or CA, Illinois’ decline is notable because it marks the 10th consecutive year of population decrease for the state.

Only West Virginia has had a longer continuous decline. 

Components of Change

 Unlike some peers, Illinois still ekes out a natural increase most years – in 2022–23, it had about 10,453 more births than deaths. It also gained roughly +40,492 people from international migration, as Chicago and other areas attracted immigrants. These factors added around 50,000 people to Illinois.

Yet the state’s total still fell because of a heavy net loss in domestic migration.

In that year Illinois lost about 83,839 residents on net to other states. This was the sole cause of Illinois’ population drop – essentially, every other component was positive, but some 84k more people moved out than moved in.

Per capita, Illinois’ outmigration rate was among the worst in the nation (relative to its population size, only a few states, like New York, California, and  Hawaii, had higher outmigration).

Why The Exodus From Illinois?

Economic factors dominate. A decade of fiscal troubles, budget impasses, and high taxation in Illinois (particularly high property taxes and a relatively high flat income tax) have made the state less attractive.

When Illinoisans are asked why they consider leaving, high taxes are often the #1 reason. In one 2019 poll, 61% of Illinois residents had thought about moving; the top motive was taxes. Another public survey in 2016 found nearly half wanted to leave, again citing “taxes are the single biggest reason”​ as noted by illinoispolicy.org.

Illinois also has had a stagnating job market in some regions – while Chicago’s economy is diverse, many downstate areas never fully recovered from deindustrialization. Better employment opportunities elsewhere (often in faster-growing cities or Sun Belt states) have been a pull factor.

Housing and quality of life are factors too: people leaving Illinois frequently report seeking better housing. This could mean more affordable housing, newer homes, or safer neighborhoods in other states.

Some parts of Illinois (including Chicago) struggle with perceptions of high crime, though Chicago’s population has stabilized in recent years; it’s the suburbs and downstate that are bleeding population the most.

The Chicago metropolitan area has seen corporate headquarters relocate (e.g. Boeing, Caterpillar announced moves), which can ripple through the economy.

Meanwhile, neighboring states like Indiana, Wisconsin, and Missouri sometimes lure Illinois residents with slightly lower costs (Indiana, for example, aggressively markets its lower taxes and cost of living just across the border from Chicago).

Illinois’ story is one of a slow drip of residents leaving year after year. Even though the state still attracts immigrants and has a large base population, it hasn’t been enough to counteract the domestic losses.

The consequences are showing up in representation (Illinois lost a U.S. House seat after 2020) and concerns about a shrinking workforce.

As the Illinois Policy Institute summarized, Illinois’ population decline is driven entirely by people moving out for “better housing and employment opportunities,” which that group argues has been hindered by poor public policy in Illinois.

High tax burdens, corruption issues, and fiscal instability are seen as underlying causes that state leaders are pressed to address if they hope to break the trend.

Louisiana: An Unusual Southern Slide

Louisiana stands out as a Southern state losing population – a rarity given that the South as a whole is growing quickly. Between 2022 and 2023, Louisiana’s population fell by about 14,274 people (–0.31%) as noted by Axios. 

This decline continues a recent pattern: Louisiana also lost population in the previous two years. It’s especially notable because most of Louisiana’s neighbors (Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas) gained population in 2023. The South accounted for 87% of U.S. growth in 2023, yet Louisiana was one of the few Southern states moving in the opposite direction.

Components of Change

Louisiana’s demographics in 2022–23 were mixed. The state nearly had a natural balance – recent data show Louisiana had about as many births as deaths in that period (after a spike in pandemic mortality).

By 2023 Louisiana had just transitioned back to natural increase, as deaths finally declined a bit; the natural change was on the order of only a few hundred people, essentially flat. This is an improvement from earlier in the decade when Louisiana had natural decrease (more deaths) due to an aging population and COVID impacts.

International migration provided a modest boost: provisional estimates suggest roughly 9–10,000 immigrants settled in Louisiana in the year leading up to 2023, a notable uptick. (Indeed, new methodology found Louisiana had been undercounting immigration; the state is now estimated to have received ~15,000 more immigrants from 2020–2023 than previously thought.)

Despite these positives, Louisiana still saw a net outflow to other states on the order of tens of thousands.

The net domestic migration was around –15,000 or more (exact figures vary), meaning that many Louisianans left for other parts of the country. One report noted 17,000 more people moved out of Louisiana than moved in from July 2023 to July 2024, and the outflow for 2022–2023 was likely of a similar magnitude.

This domestic loss is the chief reason Louisiana’s total population dropped.

Why is Louisiana Losing People?

Several compounding factors are at work:

• Economic and job challenges: Louisiana’s economy has grown more slowly than many other states. Outside of the petrochemical and port industries, job growth has lagged. The state’s median household income is low, and opportunities for high-paying jobs (especially for young professionals) are limited compared to booming Sun Belt metros. Some residents leave for better jobs in Texas (e.g. the Houston area’s energy sector) or elsewhere.
• Business climate and litigation: Business leaders in Louisiana point to a poor business climate contributing to out-migration. The state has a reputation as a “judicial hellhole,” with costly litigation and high insurance rates, which can stifle economic growth. According to the Louisiana Association of Business and Industry, excessive civil litigation, sky-high car insurance and property insurance costs, and a relatively limited market make it hard for businesses to expand, and thus harder to keep workers in-state. Simply put, companies and talent often leave for friendlier environments.
• Climate and environmental displacements: Unfortunately, Louisiana is on the front lines of climate-related migration. A series of devastating hurricanes in recent years has displaced tens of thousands of residents, some of whom never returned. In 2020, Hurricanes Laura and Delta slammed southwest Louisiana, and Hurricane Ida hit in 2021; these disasters contributed directly to population loss. Louisiana had the 5th highest population loss in 2021 (–27,000), largely due to hurricane impacts​ as noted by lpb.org.
• Social factors: Louisiana has struggled with issues like crime and education, which can motivate out-migration. New Orleans and Baton Rouge have relatively high crime rates, and some families choose to leave in search of safer communities or better schools. Additionally, the state’s population skews older in many rural parishes, leading to a natural decline (more deaths) without enough younger people to replace them.

Pennsylvania: Demographic Stagnation and Outmigration

Pennsylvania rounds out the top five, with a population decline of 10,408 people in 2023 (–0.08%). While small in percentage, this was a continuation of a worrying trend for the Keystone State.

Pennsylvania’s population was essentially flat or declining in the late 2010s, and the state saw losses during the pandemic. 

Components of Change

Pennsylvania’s decline is a mix of aging demographics and outmigration. Crucially, Pennsylvania has been experiencing a natural decrease – an excess of deaths over births – reflecting its older age profile. Pennsylvania is one of a group of Northeastern states that had more deaths than births every year from 2020 through 2023,​ according to census.gov.

In the 2022–23 period, Pennsylvania’s natural change was around –23,000 (about 23k more Pennsylvanians died than were born). This natural decline is due to low birth rates (Pennsylvania has one of the lowest fertility rates in the U.S.) and a large senior population.

On the migration side, Pennsylvania saw a net domestic outmigration of roughly 25,000 people in 2022–23 – thousands of residents (especially younger workers and retirees) left for other states. Offsetting these losses, the state did have a significant gain from international immigration, on the order of +37,000 to +38,000, based on estimates.

Immigration has picked up in cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, which helped cushion the overall population loss. Even so, the net effect was negative: the international influx couldn’t fully counterbalance the combined hit of natural decrease and domestic outflow, leaving Pennsylvania with a five-figure population drop.

Why is Pennsylvania Losing People?

The story here is less about acute crises and more about slow-burning demographic and economic trends. A primary factor is the state’s aging population. With birth rates down and the Baby Boom generation reaching old age, deaths have outpaced births in Pennsylvania (and much of Appalachia/Northeast).

This means the state needs in-migration just to break even, which it hasn’t consistently had. Younger adults often leave Pennsylvania for job hubs out of state, and many rural areas have been hollowing out for years.

Economically, Pennsylvania has areas of growth (Philadelphia’s finance/eds-and-meds sector, Pittsburgh’s tech and healthcare revival) but also large areas of stagnation (former coal and steel towns, rural counties). Job opportunities elsewhere lure many educated young Pennsylvanians away, according to the University of Pittsburgh.

A recent survey found that over half of Pennsylvanians under 30 have considered leaving the state, chiefly for a lower cost of living, lower taxes, and better job opportunities.

The state’s overall tax burden isn’t as high as NY or NJ, but it’s not especially low either, and there’s a perception that southern states offer a better deal. Weather might play a minor role – some retirees head to Florida or the Carolinas (Florida in particular draws a lot of people from the Northeast; it’s telling that Florida gained over 100k former Pennsylvania residents in the 2010s by net migration).

Another issue is that Pennsylvania’s population growth was historically driven by its big cities, but Philadelphia, the state’s largest city, saw population dips during the pandemic and has not robustly grown. If the urban centers aren’t gaining, the state as a whole struggles to grow.

Domestic migration data show Pennsylvania consistently losing residents to Sun Belt states. In 2023, Pennsylvania ranked 8th nationally in net domestic outmigration. Many outbound movers are working-age adults seeking that potent combination of cheaper housing and plentiful jobs.

States like North Carolina, Florida, and Texas – all fast-growing and relatively low-tax – have been common destinations, which aligns with the survey responses about where people see better opportunities.

Lastly, Pennsylvania’s politics and policies might have an influence. Some respondents cite the state as being on the “wrong track” and express discontent with issues like infrastructure, business climate, or public services, prompting them to try their luck elsewhere.

However, compared to the other states discussed, Pennsylvania’s situation is less about policy extremes and more about the lack of strong growth engines.

The state’s slow growth magnifies the impact of even modest outmigration. Unless birth rates rise (unlikely) or it attracts significantly more newcomers, Pennsylvania faces a future of flat or declining population, which has implications for its economy and representation.

The Bigger Picture: Implications of Population Shifts

The rapid population losses in these states carry broader implications for both the regions involved and the nation as a whole. Demographically, when states like New York, Illinois, and Pennsylvania lose residents, it often means an aging remaining population and a shrinking labor force there.

Young families departing can lead to school closures and housing market softening in some communities, while the places they go (say, suburban Atlanta or Dallas) see new pressures on infrastructure and home prices from the influx.

Economically, states losing population may face slower growth and eroding tax bases. Illinois and New York, for example, have seen revenue challenges as taxpayers leave, and businesses moving operations can exacerbate the situation.

There are also political ramifications. Population counts determine representation in Congress, and these trends, if sustained, point toward shifting political power. States that continuously lose population risk losing U.S. House seats (as happened in the 2020 Census: New York, California, and Illinois each lost seats, while Texas and Florida gained).

Over time, a migration of people (and thus electoral votes) from “blue” states to “red” states could subtly influence the Electoral College and national politics – though it’s worth noting migrants don’t always change their political leanings.

On the community level, out-migration can create a vicious cycle: as people leave, the perception of a place is that it’s “declining,” which can discourage investment and prompt even more people to go. Some states are trying to break this cycle.

For instance, incentive programs have been launched – like paying remote workers to move in or offering tax breaks for newcomers – in an attempt to stem population loss. Whether these can counter larger economic forces remains to be seen.

Nationally, these shifts underscore the ongoing realignment of population towards the South and West. Americans have been relocating from the Northeast and Midwest to the Sun Belt for decades, but recent factors (remote work, pandemic, housing costs) have accelerated it.

Top states that people are leaving– per @nytimes California saw a net loss of nearly 259,000 residents in 2023, followed by New York (186,533), Illinois (89,936) and New Jersey (66,994)… all four states saw 10 straight years of population decline,https://t.co/tR9uWVpfA6.

— Scott Rasmussen (@ScottWRasmussen) March 17, 2025

The fact that even traditionally populous states like California and New York saw net losses in the early 2020s is a signal of how powerful these migration currents have become.

Quality of life and cost competitiveness appear to be key states that can offer affordable living, jobs, and a desirable lifestyle, and are winning people over from states that historically were magnets but have grown expensive.

Finally, there’s a silver lining: the United States as a whole has returned to modest population growth post-pandemic, thanks in large part to immigration rebounding and deaths easing,​ as it is noted by the Census.

For many states, international migration has become a crucial source of new residents – in 2023, immigration fueled all the growth in 18 different states. Without it, some states that barely grew might have joined the ranks of those declining.​

This suggests that welcoming immigrants could be a strategy for offsetting domestic outflows and low birth rates. For example, Illinois, New York, and California all still grew their immigrant populations significantly, softening their losses. Policy choices on immigration, housing, and the economy will therefore shape how these trends play out.

In conclusion, the rapid population losses in states like New York, California, Illinois, Louisiana, and Pennsylvania highlight a dynamic America: one where people are “voting with their feet” for better opportunities, lower costs, or different climates. These trends bring challenges for the losing states – from economic drags to reduced political clout – while the gaining states must manage growth wisely.

As we move forward, addressing the root causes (housing affordability, tax burdens, job creation, climate resilience) in the hardest-hit states will be key to slowing or reversing the decline.